Consortium News, March 22, 2026
It’s comforting to see Donald
Trump as a buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and
ill-educated ignoramus who does not understand the world of
geopolitics. But that is nonsense.
By Craig Murray
CraigMurray.org.uk
What if Trump’s
apparently chaotic thought processes and intuitive decision-making are
all a blind, a charade? What if we are really witnessing, in the Middle
East and more widely, a carefully constructed plan with very definite
objectives?
Has Trump in fact “planned each charted
course, each careful step along the byway”, while flinging the chaff of
apparent chaos? I realise that this is not intuitive, but bear with me…
What kicked off my thinking was the
revelation by Lockheed Martin that they had been instructed by Trump,
months in advance of the attack on Iran, to massively increase
production of interceptor missiles, with a short-term goal of
quadrupling capacity of THAAD.
In January, before the start of the current conflict, Fox News was already reporting on various
deals, including a trebling of PAC3 MSE interceptor deliveries, having
been finalised between Lockheed and the Department of War.
While obviously there are supply chain and
production line constraints on the ability to ramp up production within
months, the urgency of this activity – almost entirely focused on
interceptor missiles – that started in 2025 is in hindsight a clear
indication that early war with Iran was expected. It is plain evidence
of premeditation.
The second thing that triggered my thought
that this is all carefully planned, is the nature of the breakdown of
the nuclear deal talks. It appears there was a broad consensus that Iran
offered concessions which made a deal very practical, in particular
giving up its stocks of enriched uranium into trust (a proposal Iran had
historically rejected when Putin offered to hold the material). Both
the hosts, Oman and the British thought a deal was there.
The failure of the talks is being spun as
due to the incompetence and lack of technical knowledge of Witkoff and
Kushner. But I just don’t buy this. The sending of unqualified
negotiators was part of a ploy to use the negotiations as cover for an
attack – the second time in a year that the United States had pulled the same trick.
They didn’t need competent negotiators, because they had never intended a good faith negotiation.
The attack on Iran was always planned by
Trump. He was not “bounced into it” by Israel. It had been in gestation
for months. That fact had been held within a very tight circle to avoid
both political opposition and institutional opposition from the US
military and intelligence community.
January’s protests in Iran found ordinary
people genuinely ready to protest, motivated by economic hardship caused
by sanctions. But they were guided and abused by Mossad and C.I.A. agents among the Iranian people, who committed and encouraged violence and initiated pro-Shah chanting.
There was never the slightest possibility
the protests would bring regime change, but that was not the intention.
The purpose was to incite an over-reaction by the Iranian government
that could “justify” the planned attack on Iran. The dead protestors
have been great martyrs for Trump’s – and Israel’s – wider cause.
The planting by Western state-sponsored individuals and organisations of ludicrous claims throughout
Western state and corporate media of thirty to forty thousand killed,
was a deliberate and considered plan to reduce domestic opposition in
the West to the forthcoming war against Iran.
Now factor in another apparently random
act by Trump – the astonishing kidnapping of President Maduro of
Venezuela on 3 January, a month before the attack on Iran.
Trump’s naval blockade of Venezuela’s oil
has secured a U.S. monopoly of its sale and distribution. As with Iraq,
only US-approved contractors can buy the oil and payments are made to a
Trump-controlled account in Qatar, from which revenue is given to the
Venezuelan government entirely at Trump’s discretion.
This audacious imperialist grab of the
world’s largest oil reserve further insulated the USA against the
effects of the forthcoming closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Again, the narrative is being spun that
Trump did not foresee the closure of the Strait by Iran. That is
plainly a nonsense – every commentary on a potential Iran war for half a
century has focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The only possible
explanation is that Trump does not mind the closure.
While, as Trump says, the United States
does not need the oil that comes through the Strait, the apparent
weakness in his case is that higher oil prices are universal and hit
Trump’s support, particularly as Americans fill their gas tanks.
But to concentrate on this is to make the
fundamental error of imagining that Trump cares about what is good for
the American people. He does not. He cares about what is good for Donald
J. Trump and his immediate circle.
Here is the Chevron share price over the last month:
And here is Lockheed Martin. Note that the
start of the 40% leap in share price coincides with those instructions
last year on massively ramping up interceptor production.
Not to mention, of course, that the really
big fortunes will have been made in oil and derivative commodity
futures by those who knew this war was coming (acting through proxies).
The $200 billion Trump is requesting from Congress to continue the war is going to make an awful lot of well-connected people even richer.
So the plan is the making of fortunes, the
strengthening of the military-industrial complex and the ratcheting up
under cover of national cohesion in war of the authoritarianism that has
reduced freedom of speech and outlawed dissent against Israel across
the Western world.
To benefit Israel is the other predominant motive.
Trump’s thrashing about to articulate
objectives for the war in Iran is performative, a blind to cover his
true and steadfast objective – simply the annihilation of Iran as a
functioning state, the infliction of the maximum amount of death and
infrastructural damage, the reduction of Iran to the condition of Libya.
It goes without saying that the seizure of
control of Iran’s hydrocarbons by the U.S. is the ultimate endgame of
this destruction, exactly as in Libya and in Iraq. But a linked and
crucial objective is the elimination of the source of the only physical
resistance to the expansion of Israel. Iran and its allies in Yemen and
Lebanon have been the sole support of the Palestinians for years.
The colonial settler state of Israel is
central to the projection of imperialist power in the Middle East. Its
expansion is an essential part of the plan.
Destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged
will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask
Congress for an instalment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up
in a month.
Again, Trump’s taunts about having already
won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are
all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for
Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be
echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Netanyahu yesterday revealed an
interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that
brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a
Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious
plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.
Which brings us to the Greater Israel side
of the project. Israel is not going to put any of its ships or soldiers
in harm’s way in Iran – that is the American contribution.
But while the world is primarily watching
Iran, Israel is starting a large-scale invasion of Lebanon with the aim
of annexing all of Southern Lebanon permanently, even beyond the Litani
River and including the cities of Tyre and Nabatieh, both currently
under Israeli evacuation orders.
This land of course adjoins the annexed
Golan Heights and the much larger area of Southern Syria that Israel has
annexed in the past year with the acquiescence of Zionist puppet
“President” al-Jolani.
It is essential not to lose sight of the
bipartisan nature of the United States’ long term plan. In a very real
sense Trump is continuing – if greatly accelerating – the policy under
Biden, who protected and enabled the Genocide in Gaza.
The success of this US policy is
phenomenal. Just consider that only 18 months ago the Zionist
“Presidents” al-Jolani of Syria and Aoun of Lebanon were not in power.
Both were brought to power as a result of US-aligned military action, by
Israel against Hezbollah and by the C.I.A.- and MI6-sponsored HTS
forces. Put in place by Biden, they are now central to Trump’s strategy.
Aoun and al-Jolani are now united in
threatening Hezbollah in the rear as it fights a desperate action
against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile Israel officially occupies over
60 percent of the Gaza Strip – under cover of Trump’s “Board of Peace,”
and continues to murder, blockade and starve the inhabitants of the
remnant, while the de facto expansion of Israel into the West Bank and
the levels of settler violence are escalating to levels of the utmost barbarity.
Iranian resistance is noble and Iran’s
resilience has surprised many. It will be able to make any ground
invasion, or even limited incursion, extremely costly for the United
States. But as in Gaza or Lebanon, if the U.S. and Israel are content
simply to pound from the air for years with devastating force, and with
no concern whatsoever for civilian casualties, ultimately all Iran can
do is hang on and try to survive.
Given another year of destruction at the
current levels of intensity, I do not believe that Iran would
effectively be sending many missiles and drones back in self-defence.
In a week or two we will hit the period of
maximum Iranian effectiveness, where depletion of U.S.-supplied
interceptor missiles coincides with Iran retaining significant strike
power. Israel’s fragile civilian morale will then be tested severely for
a few weeks.
Iran’s capacity to defend against massive,
years-sustained aerial bombardment is limited. We should not blind
ourselves to that fact out of current joy at the Americans and Israelis
getting a bloody nose.
It is comforting to see Trump as a
buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and
ill-educated ignoramus, who swings wildly between policy options, and
who does not understand the world of geopolitics.
But that is nonsense.
I have no hesitation in characterising
Trump’s genius as evil, focused on personal gain and willing to inflict
any amount of death, maiming and deprivation on innocent civilians to
attain his goals. But he is indeed attaining his goals on the world
stage.
Trump has forced the Security Council to underwrite his
Board of Peace. This was a quite astonishing diplomatic triumph over a
helpless Russia and China, both of which decided that other negotiations
with Trump were more important.
Trump has presided over Israel expanding
on the ground by the day. Trump has taken Venezuela’s oil, the largest
reserves in the world. Trump is currently killing the people of Iran and
destroying their infrastructure, while feigning indecision.
You should hate Trump: but he is no clown.
Craig Murray is an author,
broadcaster and human rights activist. He was British ambassador to
Uzbekistan from August 2002 to October 2004 and rector of the University
of Dundee from 2007 to 2010. His coverage is entirely dependent on
reader support. Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
