Monday, November 05, 2007

Key leaders [!] stay silent in Pakistan

Last gasp? Policemen beat demonstrating lawyers in Lahore on Monday. The number of arrests after Saturday's declaration of a state of emergency has exceeded 1,000.

Amid protests, Bhutto walks a fine line as she weighs response.

Two days after President Pervez Musharraf suspended Pakistan's stuttering transition to democracy by declaring a state of emergency and dismissing most of its Supreme Court, a familiar pattern has set in.

Lawyers who took to the streets were beaten and arrested by the hundreds. Meanwhile, the country's fractured political establishment waits to see what will happen next. It is a similar dynamic to the one that emerged eight months ago, when Mr. Musharraf sought to sack an independent-minded Supreme Court chief justice for his willingness to defy the government.

Then, as now, the organized political opposition has responded with caution and indecision. Yet if opposition leaders such as former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto were to turn the power of their parties to supporting the lawyers, the result could be transformative, experts agree – creating a popular movement that might persuade the Army to depose Musharraf – fearing that he could no longer govern.

But politics in Pakistan has always been personal and sometimes deadly. The threat of jail or even assassination – combined with political leaders' mutual animosities built up over decades of bitter power struggles – has often led to little action.

One leader in Ms. Bhutto's party, Syeda Abida Hussein, says she does not expect Bhutto to act for a week as Bhutto waits for the effects of Musharraf's move to become clearer. "I would not want her to do anything too quickly," she says.

On Monday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said that parliamentary elections would be conducted as scheduled before Jan. 15. But virtually the only major political leader who so far remains outside prison is Bhutto.

Bhutto's delicate balancing act

Publicly, she has excoriated Musharraf, characterizing his state of emergency as martial law and claiming that his dictatorial tendencies are only fueling extremism. But privately, the waltz between Musharraf and Bhutto continues – and Bhutto is still considering her options, Ms. Hussein says.

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