The US must negotiate with Iran

An Israeli attack would be disastrous, but sanctions won't work. Dialogue with the US is our best hope of avoiding a nuclear Iran

• 
• • Shirley Williams
  • guardian.co.uk, Monday June 30, 2008

I share Jonathan Freedland's concern about the danger of an attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the catastrophic consequences likely to follow. A military attack on Iran could not be a copy of the "surgical strike" against the Osirik reactor in Iraq in 1981. Natanz is close to a large new oil refinery and to Isfahan, Iran's magnificent world heritage city. The "collateral damage" from a military strike, to use the dry language of the military that describes the destruction of human beings and of history, would be terrible.

It is not yet clear that Iran wants a nuclear weapon. It is certainly quite a long way from achieving one on its own. It stubbornly affirms its right, under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, to enrich uranium for civil energy purposes. What is absolutely clear, as Mohamed ElBaradei, the director of the IAEA, has repeatedly said, is that it wants the recognition and respect its long, proud history and its role in the region deserve. That has to mean, sooner or later, recognition by the US. The absence of any diplomatic relations for 28 years between these two countries has contributed hugely to mutual misunderstanding.

Freedland's recommendation for preventing Iran developing nuclear weapons is "sharper sticks and juicier carrots". The present sharp sticks are not very sharp. On a recent week-long visit to Iran, I could find few consequences of sanctions except difficulty in using credit cards – and even that was got around by the more enterprising traders, who had set up an effective bypass via the ever helpful Dubai. Financial sanctions on trade and investment would be more effective but open to even more evasion by those disinclined to cooperate.

As for juicier carrots, the offer of US engagement in negotiations in return for a freeze on (rather than a suspension of) nuclear enrichment might just work. Even then, time would be needed to establish a dialogue with Iran's complex layers of leadership. The US should ask the shaky government of Israel, in return for years of loyal American support, to stay its hand.